Perhaps most important, the polling association argued, the 2016 experience did not suggest a systematic problem in which polls favored one party. In some years, like 2012, polls slightly underestimated the Democratic share, and in other years, like 2016, they slightly underestimated the Republican share. The report said the direction of those misses was “essentially random.” – Advertisement – The midterm elections of the following year, 2018, initially seemed to support this conclusion. The polls correctly suggested that Democrats would sweep to victory in the House, while Republicans would retain the Senate. State polls were off by an average of about four percentage points, which was historically normal.The underlying details contained some reasons for concern, though. While polls in some liberal states, like California and Massachusetts, had underestimated the Democrats’ vote share in 2018, polls in several swing states and conservative states, including Florida, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, again underestimated the Republican share.For the second time since Mr. Trump’s entry in politics, the polls had somehow failed to reach enough Republican voters in the swing states that decide modern presidential elections. A third election — his re-election campaign — was looming in 2020, and it was one that millions of Americans, both his supporters and critics, would be following passionately.- Advertisement – In the late 20th century and early 2000s, missing some of these voters had not been a big problem, because white college graduates and white non-graduates voted similarly. In 2016, these voters shifted to Mr. Trump, and the polls had failed to capture it.The report by AAPOR offered an optimistic conclusion. The national polls had been close to correct, overestimating Mrs. Clinton’s vote share by only about one percentage point. That was well within the range of historical polling errors. And there were obvious steps the industry could take to improve in the future, by including more working-class voters or weighting the ones who responded more heavily.- Advertisement – Updated Nov. 12, 2020, 2:07 p.m. ET – Advertisement –
The Tourist Board of the Istrian County, together with the organization of local tourist boards, large tourist companies, the Istrian County, other institutions and small and medium enterprises, launched a number of new projects that have promoted Istria to successful tourist destinations – from strategic partnerships, projects to -marketing and co-branding, joint advertising and strengthening of arrivals through Pula Airport all the way to small tourist projects of selective character, which completely complete the picture of the destination of Istria. “The most significant result in this is the constant raising of the reputation of the destination of Istria”, concludes Ivošević. Winners of the Golden Goat – Capra d’oro award for 2018: Golden goat – Capra d’oro is an annual award given by the Istrian County Tourist Board since 1994 for outstanding contribution in the field of marketing activities in Istrian tourism, especially in the field of product improvement and tourist promotion for activities, products and projects in the Istrian County. Since 2011, this award has been given in five categories – the main award is given to deserving individuals in the form of commemorative goat sculptures and with a monetary award in the amount of HRK 10.000, while the Charter with a monetary amount of HRK 4.000 is awarded to projects, products or activities in the following categories: Events, Visual Communications, Tourism Product and Innovative Product. In this way, the Istrian Tourist Board wants to pay tribute to ideas, projects and events that with their originality, importance and reach have improved the image of Istria as a quality tourist destination, all with the aim of motivating the private and public tourism sector to improve the quality of promotion. by participants in the promotion of the destination through the presentation of the best achievements in tourism in Istria. Category: Events CultureSvetvinčenat Tourist Board and Svetvinčenat Municipality8th Medieval Festival, Svetvinčenat, 03. – 05.08.2018.Category: Events SportSport box doo Buzetfor the organization of the 100 miles of Istria race, 05. – 08.04.2018.Category: Events FunSonitus Association, PulaVisualia: Festival of Light, Pula, September 13 – 15.09.2018, XNUMX. Category: Events AttractionsCity of Pulato organize the transmission of the final match World Cup in Pula Arena France – Croatia, July 15.07.2018, XNUMX “For us, it is another in a series of very successful tourist years, and we emphasize the” year “because we are no longer talking only about the tourist season, in which we achieved 4,5 million arrivals, with a 5 percent increase and 28,4 million overnight stays. that is, 3 percent more than in the previous year. What is particularly important is the fact that almost one million surplus nights compared to 2017 were realized in the winter months – that is, the pre-season and post-season. ” Denis Ivošević, director of the Istria County Tourist Board, points out and adds that this year the largest number of arrivals was realized at Pula Airport, almost 715.000 arrivals, which is an absolute record in history. Category: Innovative productValamar Riviera dd Porečfor the Terra Magica Adventure Mini Golf projectCategory: Tourist productArena Hospitality Groupfor Arena One 99 GlampingCategory: Visual communicationsPlava Laguna dd Porečfor a new brand with a six-star attitudeWinners of the annual award of the Tourist Board of the Istrian CountyGolden Goat – Capra d’oro for 2018Winner of the Golden Goat – Capra d’oro award for 2018 for outstanding contribution to the development and promotion of Istrian tourism: Boris Žgomba, President of the Management Board of the Uniline travel agencyWinner of a special award for foreign partners for outstanding contribution to the promotion of Istrian tourism:Fausto Arrighi, consultant, former director of the Michelin Italy guide Photo: Istria Tourist Board read more
Avian influenza has invaded four more turkey farms in the Upper Midwest: two in Iowa, one in Minnesota, and one in South Dakota, according to state and media reports.The Iowa and Minnesota incidents were announced today, and the South Dakota was revealed late last week.Two Iowa counties affectedIn Iowa, the virus hit turkey farms in Hamilton and Calhoun counties, marking the second outbreak in each, the Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land stewardship (IDALS) said today. Hamilton is in central Iowa, and Calhoun lies two counties to the west.The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has confirmed the “highly pathogenic H5 virus” on the Hamilton County farm, which has 36,000 turkeys, the IDALS said, without mentioning H5N2 specifically. At the Calhoun County farm, with 21,000 birds, initial testing showed the H5 virus, and confirmatory test results from the USDA are awaited.Iowa has now had 65 outbreaks in 18 counties, with 28.6 million poultry affected, according to IDALS data.Minnesota outbreaks reach 103In Minnesota, the affected farm is in the south-central county of Brown, the Minnesota Department of Public Safety (DPS) reported today. The outbreak is listed as a presumptive positive, and the size of the flock is not yet available.Minnesota now has 103 farms hit by avian flu in 23 counties, the DPS said. More than 8.3 million birds have been affected, not counting farms for which flock size estimates are not yet available.South Dakota reports 10th eventThe South Dakota outbreak was reported May 29 in Moody County, which borders Minnesota.South Dakota State Veterinarian Dustin Oedekoven, DVM, said a farm with about 50,000 birds had a presumptive positive test for avian flu, according to a May 29 Associated Press (AP) story. He said officials were waiting for confirmation of the H5N2 virus and that crews would soon start euthanizing the surviving turkeys to stop the virus’s spread.The outbreak is South Dakota’s 10th recent avian flu incident and the second in Moody County, according to a chart maintained by the South Dakota Animal Industry Board (AIB). The previous outbreak, reported May 14, involved an egg farm with 1.3 million chickens.The South Dakota outbreaks have affected a total of 1.7 million birds, according to the AIB.In other developments, the North Dakota Department of Agriculture (NDDA) today announced the end of a ban on poultry movements in control zones around the two farms in Dickey and LaMoure counties that were hit by H5N2 in April.See also:Jun 1 IDALS statementJun 1 Minnesota DPS statementMay 29 AP storySouth Dakota AIB chart of outbreaksJun 1 NDDA statement on lifting of restrictions read more
Yesterday Sanofi Pasteur, maker of Dengvaxia, a promising dengue vaccine, announced it was changing the labeling on the vaccine to limit its use to people who have had previous exposure to dengue virus.The company said a new analysis shows that, for dengue-naive recipients, the vaccine makes future dengue episodes more severe. According to a press release from Sanofi, vaccination should not be recommended to people who have not been infected by dengue virus.Pioneering dengue researchers Scott Halstead, MD, and Philip K. Russell, MD, PhD, predicted this move nearly 2 years ago. They had seen results from Dengvaxia’s trials showing evidence of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), a dengue phenomenon that makes repeat infections more severe and can cause severe illness after vaccination in those who haven’t been previously exposed to the virus.Sanofi says ADE not whole storyBut in an email correspondence, Sanofi Pasteur spokesperson Laurence Bollack held back from admitting the vaccine caused ADE.”The new study that we conducted was not designed to prove nor disprove the ADE hypothesis but rather to further evaluate the performance of vaccination in two subgroups of the original study population: those with and those without a prior dengue infection before vaccination,” Bollack said.”Dengue is different than most infectious diseases because a person’s second infection is typically much more serious than the first. ADE is one hypothesis proposed to explain this aspect of dengue infection, but people can get severely ill also at the first, third, and fourth infection with dengue, so ADE cannot be the whole story.”Halstead and Russell disagreed. Using Sanofi’s phase 3 data, they published a study in Vaccine last February showing that during the 3 years following immunization among seronegative children, dengue hospitalization rate was significantly higher among vaccinees than controls. For children without prior dengue exposure, the vaccine acts as a priming dose of the virus.Today Halstead said he’s not surprised by Sanofi’s move.”I am surprised that it did get this far, and that the World Health Organization [WHO] ushered the vaccine in,” Halstead said.Company to lose millionsDengvaxia was the world’s first promising dengue vaccine and was predicted to be a blockbuster for Sanofi. The WHO approved its use in April of 2016, and it has been licensed in more than 12 countries. Dengvaxia took more than 20 years and $1 billion to develop.Yesterday, Reuters reported that Sanofi’s labeling change will cause a $120 million fourth-quarter loss for the company.Today the Department of Health (DOH) of the Philippines announced it will place use of Dengvaxia on hold in light of Sanofi’s announcement. The Philippines was one of the first four countries to approve the use of the vaccine and was a study site during clinical trials.Halstead said he’s been in communication with colleagues from the Philippines, including physicians who are now unsure how to proceed.”They have almost a million kids in the Philippines who have been vaccinated, and some were dengue-naive,” said Halstead. “It’s supposed to be a series of three shots, and now some only have had one, or two.”Halstead said he doesn’t know what the correct course of action should be for dengue-endemic countries.”Sanofi has created a godawful mess, and we’re going to have to slog along.”See also:Nov 29 Sanofi press releaseJul 28, 2016, CIDRAP News Story “Contrary dengue response hints at possible problems with Zika”Nov 29 Reuters storyDec 1 Philippines DOH statementNov 8 CIDRAP News story “Dengue study adds to evidence for antibody enhancement” read more
Categories: Letters to the Editor, Opinion The RAISE Family Caregivers Act would provide much needed support for these caregivers by facilitating the creation of a family care giving strategy to address the many issues facing caregivers today including: education and training, long-term services and supports, and financial stability and security. A similar bill was passed in the Senate, but because the two bills are not identical. The next steps require the two chambers to reconcile the differences between the two bills.The Alzheimer’s Association and family caregivers in our area appreciate the leadership offered by our elected officials.William R. HinrichsAlbany Last month, the House of Representatives passed the Recognize, Assist, Include, Support, and Engage (RAISE) Family Caregivers Act of 2017 (H.R. 3759.)This bill, co-sponsored by Reps. Paul Tonko, Elise Stefanik and John Faso, would require the development and implementation of a coordinated national strategy to recognize and support family caregivers.In New York, over 1 million unpaid family caregivers provide more than 1 billion hours of care for approximately 390,000 individuals with Alzheimer’s or other dementia.The work provided by these caregivers is valued at more than $14 billion.More than half of these caregivers have been caring for a loved one with dementia for at least two years, and one-third of them provide 20 or more hours of care per week.And more than one in five dementia caregivers are in the “sandwich generation,” caring for both someone with dementia and a child or grandchild. The writer is associate director of Advocacy & Federal Government Affairs for the Alzheimer’s Association of Northeastern New York.More from The Daily Gazette:EDITORIAL: Urgent: Today is the last day to complete the censusFeds: Albany man sentenced for role in romance scamFoss: Should main downtown branch of the Schenectady County Public Library reopen?EDITORIAL: Find a way to get family members into nursing homesEDITORIAL: Beware of voter intimidation read more
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Admission is FREE at Las Golondrinas for New Mexico residents and visitors are welcome to bring or buy lunch there. Those age 60 and over can join the senior centers for free. LAS GOLONDRINAS News: The trip is planned for Wednesday, July 24. It departs the Los Alamos Senior Center at 9 a.m. and picks up at 9:15 a.m. at White Rock Senior Center. El Rancho de Las Golondrinas offers free Wednesdays for New Mexico residents in July. The Los Alamos and White Rock Senior Centers will offer members round trip transportation for just $8. Courtesy/El rancho de las Golondrinas Call 505.662.8922 to reserve a spot for the trip, but must be a member prior to the trip.
Daily Postcard: Autumn view Monday afternoon of Griffith Gymnasium. Photo by Carol A. Clark/ladailypost.com
Members of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) from across the country have reported to the police in their respective regions an incident in which the party’s flag was burned during a rally on Wednesday.Held during a period of transition from large-scale social restrictions to a “new normal” of relaxed restrictions amid the COVD-19 pandemic, the rally was staged by Islamist groups to reject a bill initiated by the House of Representatives on Pancasila Ideology Guidelines (HIP) in Jakarta.The groups called on the House to drop the bill, saying it would open the door to the reemergence of communist ideology in the country. “We are forced to take legal steps and report the incident to law enforcement officials for various acts of violence and defamation carried out by persons who have violated our democratic spirit,” said PDI-P executive Ahmad Basarah.Senior PDI-P politician Tjahjo Kumolo, who serves as the administrative and bureaucratic reform minister, has called on members of the party to report the incident to the police.Videos circulating online show rally participants burning the PDI-P flag and the flag of the Indonesian Communist Party (PKI), which was disbanded after being accused of being responsible for the coup against president Sukarno, Megawati’s father, and the killing of six Army generals in 1965, an incident that led to the rise of Soeharto.Bendera Pedeipeh dan pekai di bakar massa …keren 👍👌🏻 pic.twitter.com/li14PDWfcp— @Rindang~89 (@syakiraarie) June 24, 2020Read also: Muslim preacher accused of calling PDI-P members communists acquittedIn 1966, Soeharto declared communism the nation’s ideological pariah. Provisional People’s Consultative Assembly Decree No. 25/1966 banned communism in Indonesia, and this was later reaffirmed through People’s Consultative Assembly Decree No. 1/2003.The decree was not included in the Pancasila ideology bill, which sparked the Islamist groups’ opposition to it.Topics : PDI-P chairman Megawati Sukarnoputri issued an authorization on Thursday, a copy of which was obtained by The Jakarta Post, for its members to take legal action over the incident.”We should unite! Take legal action, strengthen unity with the people,” Megawati, who served as the country’s fifth president, said.Read also: PDI-P, Gerindra slammed for lodging ‘vested interest’ billsResponding to Megawati’s letter, the PDI-P executive board and at least five regional branches reported the incident to the police on Friday. The branches included those in Bekasi and Depok, West Java, and the Thousand Islands branch in Jakarta. read more
AdvertisementClick Here to Read MoreAdvertisementDraco Springs, a global leader in racing spring manufacturing, in conjunction with SRI Performance, exclusive supplier of Draco’s signature purple springs, has expanded their technical sales and service departments by hiring two engineers: Andy May and Dennis Wells of Zeta Performance Vehicle Technologies (PVT). With these new hires, Draco Springs and SRI have said they renew their longtime commitment to providing industry-leading technical sales support.Going forward, the duo of May and Wells are expected to become the primary points-of-contact for all technical questions relating to Draco’s full line of racing springs. May’s background includes multiple tenures as a car chief and engineer with championship-caliber NASCAR teams. Wells spent the past decade as a shock and spring specialist for both NASCAR teams and other major spring companies. Together, May and Wells formed Zeta PVT, which is a full-service automotive engineering company specializing in vehicle testing and development. With their broad experience on seven-post rigs and data acquisition systems, May and Wells are well-qualified to advise customers on their spring choices, basing their knowledge on real data acquired from the testing field.“These guys [May and Wells] can really get out there and talk springs with anyone,” said SRI Performance Owner, Greg Fornelli. “Draco’s line is so diverse and caters to all forms of racing. The goal is to see more purple springs on more racecars in 2019, and Andy and Dennis are the guys for the job.”AdvertisementBy bringing on May and Wells of Zeta PVT, SRI looks to keep Draco as one of its top-selling product lines at its multiple locations, while growing its outside sales presence. read more